Polymarket Trader

Paeniscus.

0x111ebadb5b678e8f62a5b72792f23d6f20ef3753

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $15.93K
Realized PnL: $9.64K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.68K
Potential profit: $5.68K
User PnL: -$2.48K

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $2.03K
Potential payout: $2.39K
Potential profit: $358.65
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$84.62

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.98K
Potential payout: $2.14K
Potential profit: $160.66
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $60.15

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $1.38K
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $324.33
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$146.47

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.39K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $112.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $1.25K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $238.89
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$34.88

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.19K
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $82.42
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $44.38

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $169.53
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$10.79

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $148
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $999.46
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $149.35
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$27.37

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-01 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $72.02
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $25.45

Yes position

Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Federico Valverde win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will Jamal Musiala win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$41.41

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $876.45
Potential payout: $979.27
Potential profit: $102.82
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $838.21
Potential payout: $887
Potential profit: $48.79
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $39.91

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $805.04
Potential payout: $861
Potential profit: $55.97
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $30.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2K

No position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

No position

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

No position

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $740.4

No position

Fed rate hike in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $442.57

No position

Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.59

No position

New pandemic before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.09

No position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.72

No position

US stagflation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170

No position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.51

Yes position

Will neither OP_CTV nor OP_CAT be activated in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.78

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.42

Yes position

Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.14

Yes position

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.51

No position

Will Trump meet with Khamenei before August?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.62

No position

Will NVDA purchase Bitcoin before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.15

No position

Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.08

Yes position

Grok 4 released by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.17

No position

Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.18

No position

Will Congress pass a bill limiting Trump's tariffs before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.51

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41

No position

Will the Conservative Party of Japan be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.63

No position

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?

No 81% 1,304 shares
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?

Yes 90% 1,500 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat?

No 90% 1,812.07 shares
Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?

Yes 90% 979.27 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat?

Yes 90% 861 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-03 House seat?

Yes 90% 231.3 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat?

Yes 89% 440 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat?

No 88% 826 shares
Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat?

Yes 90% 887 shares
Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?

Yes 90% 1,268 shares
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?

Yes 89.7% 391 shares
Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat?

No 90% 235 shares