Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $1.18K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.83K
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $298.04
Polymarket Trader
aadvark89
@aadvark89
0x1161a33d3863b5d479b1c5038d758283e1d2729a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $18.71K
- Realized PnL
- $17.53K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $1.26K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.75K
- Multiplier
- 7.97x
- User PnL
- $139.04
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $695
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.31K
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$234.99
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $595
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.41K
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$255
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 37.6%
- Current value
- $3.76K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $6.25K
- Multiplier
- 2.66x
- User PnL
- -$1.25K
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $6.25K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $3.76K
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.02K
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $415
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $535
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.46K
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $1.36K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.63K
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$345
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $700.51
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$9.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65K
Yes position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03K
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $845.53
No position
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $721.13
No position
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $688.72
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.6
No position
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $424
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $411
No position
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $397.01
No position
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $395.08
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $268.7
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.1
No position
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.33
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232
Yes position
Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.74
No position
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.3
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.98
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.27
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $99.86
Yes position
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No 90% 250 shares
- Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No 54.9% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No 98.7% 470 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 99.7% 430 shares
- Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading?No 99.9% 279.99 shares
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?No 42.9% 606.98 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No 79% 3,954.82 shares
- Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?No 90.6% 1,634.12 shares
- Zuffa Boxing 3: Ajagba vs. Martin (Heavyweight, Main)Martin 13% 437.6 shares
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 17?Down 33% 70 shares
- Zuffa Boxing 3: Ajagba vs. Martin (Heavyweight, Main)Martin 13% 10 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No 99.9% 7,464.98 shares