No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $1.86K
- Potential profit
- $269.04
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $206.42
Polymarket Trader
SmakAfriki
0x11de4cc0fe3abf6d803c139324034170c6c321d7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.77K
- Realized PnL
- $14.31K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $121.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $178.5
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $16.5
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $39
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $260.99
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$12
No position
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$44
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $14.11
- Potential payout
- $97.33
- Potential profit
- $83.22
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $94.7
- Potential profit
- $84.76
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$8.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.14K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $975
Yes position
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $753.4
Yes position
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $568
No position
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $500
No position
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $476
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $416.79
No position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.7
Yes position
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $378.56
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $355.56
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.26
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $270
Yes position
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $265.19
Yes position
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.29
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.22
No position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.5
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.12
No position
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.01
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.44
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 909.09 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 95.1% 2,200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 80.7% 1,197.92 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 83.5% 1,197.93 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 83.1% 240.71 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 67.8% 147.59 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 82% 24.39 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes 49.9% 400.7 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 71.6% 279.27 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 36% 300.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 16% 750.57 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 99.1% 619.04 shares