Polymarket Trader

okcoolstorybro

0x122cdd9db64fd8dc3ebab813218e3effe21f821f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $150.45K
Realized PnL: $224.13K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $22.79K
Potential payout: $141.11K
Potential profit: $118.32K
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: -$47.77K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 83.9%
Current value: $118.32K
Potential payout: $141.11K
Potential profit: $22.79K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $47.77K

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $4.13K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $875
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $1.63K

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $161.32
Potential payout: $2.78K
Potential profit: $2.62K
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$1.55K

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $451.34
Potential payout: $2.58K
Potential profit: $2.13K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$838.21

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.4K
User PnL: -$1.88K

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $2.22K
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $90.05
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $151.95

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $168.64
Potential payout: $1.98K
Potential profit: $1.82K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$47.91

Yes position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.59K
User PnL: -$962.34

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $34.01
Potential payout: $1.42K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$4.25

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.35K
User PnL: -$1.03K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92.1%
Current value: $769.33
Potential payout: $835.77
Potential profit: $66.44
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $27.97

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $76.59
Potential payout: $666
Potential profit: $589.41
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$23.31

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $541.71
Potential profit: $541.71
User PnL: -$150.19

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $86.92
Potential payout: $496.7
Potential profit: $409.77
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$18.77

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $235.32
Potential payout: $444
Potential profit: $208.68
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$31.08

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $373.16
Potential payout: $387.3
Potential profit: $14.14
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $22.14

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $91.58
Potential payout: $333
Potential profit: $241.43
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$11.66

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.1%
Current value: $242.84
Potential payout: $323.18
Potential profit: $80.34
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$32.02

Yes position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $16.9
Potential payout: $256.05
Potential profit: $239.15
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: -$7.65

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $156.15
Potential payout: $187.01
Potential profit: $30.86
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$8.39

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $130.51
Potential payout: $144.37
Potential profit: $13.86
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $4.42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $127.09K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.81K

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.71K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.19K

Yes position

Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?

Ends Feb 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.81K

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.3K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.03K

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.89K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.54K

No position

Was Trump hacked?

Ends Jan 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.45K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55K

Yes position

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44K

No position

Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94K

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05K

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $944.35

Yes position

Major cyberattack on Iran in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $940.83

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 98.9% 100,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 98.9% 50,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 98.8% 9.99 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

No 99.4% 3,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 88.2% 5,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 87.7% 8,239.21 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 83.7% 4,929.95 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 84% 4,066.02 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 82.8% 3,899.51 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

No 87.3% 144.37 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 84.9% 3,332.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 86.4% 5,555 shares