Polymarket Trader

ihavenofidea

0x124b1f9e96a0aa397d8b35ad572df90a4c27a12c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $581.7
Realized PnL: $454.41
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $646.04
Potential profit: $646.04
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $121.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $178.5
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $129.15
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $80.85
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $47.25

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $46.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $153.9
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: -$34.7

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $44.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $155.1
Multiplier: 4.45x
User PnL: -$75.19

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $167
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $33
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $169.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$105.63

Yes position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $39.01
Potential payout: $45.1
Potential profit: $6.09
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.99

Rockets position

Lakers vs. Rockets

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.74
Potential profit: $37.74
User PnL: -$29.81

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.27
Potential profit: $27.27
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $11.13
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.45
Potential profit: $8.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $5.27
Potential payout: $5.3
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.8%
Current value: $4.55
Potential payout: $5.25
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.89
Potential profit: $1.89
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.61

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.66

Lakers position

Pelicans vs. Lakers

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.31

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.89

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.31

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.1

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Yes 97.2% 41.15 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Yes 15.5% 646.04 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 64% 160 shares
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Yes 81% 6.17 shares
Lakers vs. Rockets

Rockets 79% 37.5 shares
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Yes 80% 15 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 43% 10 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

No 59% 10 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

No 78% 10 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 39% 10 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 39% 200 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 40.4% 200 shares