Polymarket Trader

PolishIdiot

0x12531896058adb259c28d3d29838c755b1caf934

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $7.23
Realized PnL: $21.79
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Krzysztof Ratajski win the PDC World Darts Championship?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$1.04

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.07
Potential profit: $9.07
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.9
Potential profit: $6.9
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Starmer out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$1

No position

Don Lemon charges dropped?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $4.2
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the Fox News interview on July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.41
Potential profit: $1.41
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will Trump say "BRICS" or "NATO" 2+ times during conference with Putin on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.35
Potential profit: $1.35
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

No position

Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $110 end of November?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Iran Nuke in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02

No position

Trump x Putin talk before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03

No position

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Elon no longer world's richest before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

Yes position

F1 British Grand Prix: Safety Car?

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday?

Ends Jun 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.15

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Yes 66% 3.03 shares
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?

No 65% 3.03 shares
Don Lemon charges dropped?

No 60% 4.2 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?

Up 83% 2.52 shares
Natural Disaster in 2026?

Yes 49% 4.27 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

100k 56% 3.57 shares
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

No 50% 3.5 shares
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

No 81% 2.47 shares
Natural Disaster in 2026?

Yes 48% 4.27 shares
Will Krzysztof Ratajski win the PDC World Darts Championship?

Yes 0.8% 99.03 shares
Will Peak win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

Yes 34% 5.88 shares
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

No 29.2% 9.07 shares