Polymarket Trader

Halley01

0x128b01c68900a23798d151b7f56942d9f6fb7c4f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $9.36K
Realized PnL: $2.25K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.02K
Potential profit: $4.02K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $2.1K
User PnL: -$2.05K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $1.92K
Potential payout: $1.95K
Potential profit: $26.27
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $48.84

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $162.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6.68

Yes position

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.26K
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $6.98
User PnL: $53.91

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.19K
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.79
User PnL: $11.15

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $1.02K
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $13.49
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $22.62

Yes position

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $995
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $723.4
Potential payout: $733.29
Potential profit: $9.9
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $33.11

No position

Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $602.58
Potential payout: $605
Potential profit: $2.42
User PnL: $2.89

No position

Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $379.52
Potential payout: $382
Potential profit: $2.48
User PnL: $7.87

Brazil position

Spread: Brazil (-2.5)

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270
Potential profit: $270
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$14.19

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $13.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $36.75
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $27.5
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $5.65

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.98
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.75
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $45.84
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $39.9
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: -$0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $412.52

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.12

No position

Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.8

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.26

No position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.61

No position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.45

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.8

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.79

No position

Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95

No position

Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.31

Yes position

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.37

No position

US bank failure by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.36

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.58

No position

Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66

No position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.66

Yes position

Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.2M in April?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.87

No position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.3

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.68

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.8

No position

Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.94

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.43

No position

Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.76

No position

Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between -0.3% and -0.1%?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.55

No position

US bank failure by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.06

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 98.8% 19.99 shares
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May?

No 99.9% 10 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 98% 5.89 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 98% 60 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 97.9% 300 shares
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

No 97.9% 12 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 97% 16.29 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 97% 20 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 97% 200 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 93% 50 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 93% 50 shares
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Yes 93% 50 shares