Polymarket Trader

cit500

@logcowboy

0x12b20c267ade52dbdda9dce0684ffaec7d93a11d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $23.42
Realized PnL: $572.54
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 27 above $205?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$5.75

No position

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$8.65

Yes position

GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $14.73
Potential profit: $10.75
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$8.18

No position

Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.65

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $9.6
Potential profit: $9.07
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.32
Potential profit: $8.32
User PnL: -$1.71

No position

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Deel IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.78
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.18

No position

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.93

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$3.1

No position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.45

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $4.63
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.38
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.68
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 44.9%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.76
Multiplier: 2.23x
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.15

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.75 Week of April 27 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.25

No position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.4

No position

MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 12PM ET

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 3PM ET

Ends Sep 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 2PM ET

Ends Sep 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6AM ET

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4PM ET

Ends Sep 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8AM ET

Ends Sep 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET

Ends Sep 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.37

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 12PM ET

Ends Sep 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10AM ET

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.07

Yes position

US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12PM ET

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7PM ET

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.8

Up position

XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12PM ET

Ends Sep 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 8AM ET

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4AM ET

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.8

Up position

XRP Up or Down - October 30, 11PM ET

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.3

Up position

XRP Up or Down - October 31, 9AM ET

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8AM ET

Ends Sep 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

No 52% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Yes 47% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Yes 39% 5 shares
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Yes 45% 5 shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

No 90% 5 shares
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

No 40% 5 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Yes 48% 5 shares
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

No 35% 5 shares
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

No 37% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 47% 5 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Yes 49% 5 shares
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Yes 25% 5 shares