Polymarket Trader

bearbees2

0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $104.91K
Realized PnL: $38.22K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $11.82K
Potential payout: $76K
Potential profit: $64.18K
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: -$26.18K

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $64.18K
Potential payout: $76K
Potential profit: $11.82K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $26.18K

Yes position

Will Canada win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.04K
Potential profit: $17.04K
User PnL: -$514.57

No position

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $5.93K
Potential payout: $5.98K
Potential profit: $47.81
User PnL: $580.77

No position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.25K
Potential payout: $5.67K
Potential profit: $425.58
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $575.3

No position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $3.1K
Potential payout: $3.11K
Potential profit: $7.78
User PnL: $30.71

No position

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $2.77K
Potential payout: $2.79K
Potential profit: $16.73
User PnL: $540.88

No position

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $2.11K
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $288
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $102

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $550.72
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$572.82

No position

Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.48K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $2.98
User PnL: $65.79

Yes position

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $36
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$8.49

No position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $156.61
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $220.02

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $956.49
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $43.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$8.5

No position

Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $933.24
Potential payout: $935.58
Potential profit: $2.34
User PnL: $11.84

No position

Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $858.95
Potential payout: $865
Potential profit: $6.05
User PnL: $4.13

No position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $824.25
Potential payout: $833
Potential profit: $8.75
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $24.57

No position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $190.79
Potential payout: $799.97
Potential profit: $609.18
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: -$323.68

No position

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $590.06
Potential payout: $742.21
Potential profit: $152.15
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $138.03

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $594.6
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $5.4
User PnL: $18.9

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $496.66
Potential payout: $524.18
Potential profit: $27.52
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $54.08

No position

Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $412.76
Potential payout: $415.88
Potential profit: $3.12
User PnL: $20.36

No position

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $337.14
Potential payout: $367.06
Potential profit: $29.92
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $28.06

No position

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $274.5
Potential payout: $277.97
Potential profit: $3.47
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $7.19

No position

Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $198.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.3
User PnL: $2.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.67K

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $3.3K

Yes position

Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94K

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69K

Yes position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23K

No position

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.42K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.26K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

No position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $837.45

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $707.69

No position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $675.7

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $485.42

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $479.37

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $422.6

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.68

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.05

No position

Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.08

No position

Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304.98

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $290.6

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.94

No position

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.68

No position

Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.91

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 62,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.3% 10,000 shares
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 96% 562.01 shares
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 95% 925.68 shares
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 96% 325 shares
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

No 99% 64.8 shares
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 99.9% 2,142.31 shares
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 99.8% 265.01 shares
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 99.8% 5.5 shares
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 99.8% 295.85 shares
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 99% 70.5 shares
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

No 98.8% 16.5 shares