Polymarket Trader

SHILLWALTON

0x12c938f50dd338ff37e42e9f20ad55d9a2402294

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.29K
Realized PnL: $260.23
Win rate: 46.7%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $93.75
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.41K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$6.25

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $47.22
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.51K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $47.22
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.51K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $47.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.95K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.87K
Potential profit: $3.87K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $42.19
Potential payout: $3.13K
Potential profit: $3.08K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$7.81

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.51K
Potential profit: $2.51K
User PnL: -$1.8K

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $28.41
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.24K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$21.59

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $954.04
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$295.96

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $209.37
Potential payout: $1.99K
Potential profit: $1.78K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$340.62

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $39.17
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.63K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $9.17

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $539.9
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$860.1

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $30.48
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $12.03
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $733.05
Potential payout: $847.46
Potential profit: $114.41
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $233.05

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $707.69
Potential profit: $707.69
User PnL: -$500

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $236.64
Potential payout: $599.09
Potential profit: $362.45
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$263.36

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $27.51
Potential payout: $579.23
Potential profit: $551.72
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$172.49

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $173.44
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $139.06
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $73.44

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $28.64
Potential payout: $272.73
Potential profit: $244.09
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.36

Yes position

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.17
Potential profit: $54.17
User PnL: -$13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92.2%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $198.12

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.47

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.9

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.77

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $2.75

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.76

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$12.73

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$17.14

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$19.97

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$20.91

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$60.85

No position

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$66.14

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$164.63

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?

Yes 24% 54.17 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 76.2% 524.85 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 50% 600 shares
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 2.2% 2,272.73 shares
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1.6% 3,125 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 28% 1,785.71 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 77.5% 644.87 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.8% 1,666.67 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.5% 1,200 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 83.5% 599.09 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

No 70.7% 707.69 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 82% 1,219.51 shares