No position
Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.05
- Potential profit
- $17.05
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Polymarket Trader
casualInference
0x13098c1768ddd0ed2e17dc4a437e126c8eab2c97
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $33.95
- Realized PnL
- $27.71
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Will "Anthropic" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.56
- Potential profit
- $11.56
- User PnL
- -$3.35
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5.8
No position
Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $8.52
- Potential profit
- $6.82
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.89
- Potential payout
- $8.46
- Potential profit
- $7.57
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 5?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.55
- Potential profit
- $7.55
- User PnL
- -$2.34
No position
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.66
- Potential profit
- $6.66
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.38
- Potential profit
- $6.38
- User PnL
- -$3.45
N
No position
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 67%-68%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $3.48
- Potential payout
- $6.33
- Potential profit
- $2.85
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
No position
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.15
- Potential profit
- $6.15
- User PnL
- -$3.57
N
No position
Will Trump say "Heart Attack" in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $4.44
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $1.56
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $1.38
No position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.99
- Potential profit
- $5.99
- User PnL
- -$2.1
N
No position
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.93
- Potential profit
- $5.93
- User PnL
- -$4.21
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $5.49
- User PnL
- -$3.51
No position
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.03
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
N
No position
Will Trump say "Eagle" in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$2.55
N
No position
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $3.48
- Potential payout
- $4.38
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
N
No position
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?
Ends Jul 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $2.98
- Potential payout
- $4.05
- Potential profit
- $1.07
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
N
No position
Will fewer than 75 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $3.98
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $3.58
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Current value
- $3.31
- Potential payout
- $3.55
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $2.34
- Potential payout
- $2.96
- Potential profit
- $0.62
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.16
- Potential profit
- $2.16
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2
- Potential profit
- $2
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.44
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.79
No position
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 5?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 6?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 3?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?No 35% 5.99 shares
- Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?No 81% 5 shares
- Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No 97% 1.69 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 6?No 98% 3.1 shares
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?No 74% 4.05 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No 84% 3.58 shares
- S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on July 6?No 98% 3.45 shares
- Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?No 94.1% 3.55 shares
- Will Trump say "Heart Attack" in July?No 51% 6 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 6?No 90% 2.97 shares
- Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?No 87% 4.38 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 5?No 73% 5.49 shares