Polymarket Trader

runes-leo

@runes_leo

0x13e1f69df75b78372182ebe64bd8dcea1c700805

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $220.63
Realized PnL: $1.7K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $735.9
Potential profit: $735.9
User PnL: -$4.89

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $465
Potential profit: $465
User PnL: -$99.45

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370
Potential profit: $370
User PnL: -$60.82

Yes position

Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$11.1

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $280
Potential profit: $280
User PnL: -$11.48

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $14.33
Potential payout: $178
Potential profit: $163.67
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: -$5.61

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $171.57
Potential profit: $171.57
User PnL: -$12.34

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $28.04
Potential payout: $152
Potential profit: $123.96
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $11.78
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $138.23
Multiplier: 12.74x
User PnL: -$3.22

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$35.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $137.7
Multiplier: 12.20x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.93

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $53.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $96.75
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $38.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $69.75
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $80.25
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$5.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.78
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$14.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$14.93

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $134.18
Potential profit: $134.18
User PnL: -$13.42

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $7.17
Potential payout: $134
Potential profit: $126.83
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $122.6
Potential profit: $122.6
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $16.62
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $103.38
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$3.3

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $7.02
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $112.98
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$13.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.27

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $143.13

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.99

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.44

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.22

No position

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.26

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.31

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.84

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.48

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.02

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

Ends Nov 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31.82

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.21

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.87

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5

Under 10% 50 shares
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5

Under 58% 34.48 shares
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?

Yes 29% 34.48 shares
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Yes 0.9% 107.6 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?

No 56% 15.65 shares
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 14?

No 65% 14.74 shares
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 14?

No 65% 4.31 shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 14?

No 56.5% 16.63 shares
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13?

No 46.6% 15.57 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 13?

No 57.4% 15.66 shares
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 13?

No 6.1% 16.2 shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 14?

No 64% 14.73 shares