Polymarket Trader

SmartBoyBilly

0x1491f3faea8f55eb683eea438d4d6367eb84fd70

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.02K
Realized PnL: $18.8
Win rate: 36.4%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $567
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $133
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $21.45
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $478.55
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$38.55

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $496.5
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $162.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $337.5
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$77.5

Yes position

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $20.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $479.75
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $250
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $250
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$95

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $495.75
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$10.75

Yes position

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $492.75
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$12.75

Yes position

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $497
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the announcers say "VAR" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $258
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $142
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Foul" 12+ times during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $111.03
Potential payout: $300.08
Potential profit: $189.05
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: -$16

No position

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $270.65
Potential payout: $282.07
Potential profit: $11.42
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $175.91
Potential payout: $264.53
Potential profit: $88.62
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$7.02

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Transition" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $114.71
Potential payout: $244.06
Potential profit: $129.35
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$23.73

Yes position

Will the announcers say "Legacy" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $27.42
Potential payout: $228.51
Potential profit: $201.09
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$80.55

No position

NYC Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $146.37
Potential payout: $220.1
Potential profit: $73.73
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$31.9

Yes position

Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $59.43
Potential payout: $220.1
Potential profit: $160.67
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

Ends Jul 25, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $146.73
Potential payout: $201
Potential profit: $54.27
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $182.81
Potential payout: $201
Potential profit: $18.19
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $120
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $80
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $121
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $79
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $141
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $59
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $9

No position

Will the announcers say "Dolphins" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $106
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $94
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $44

No position

Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Ends Aug 8, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 21.9%
Multiplier: 4.58x
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 40%-42%?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPad revenue be above $8B?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

Ends Aug 8, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 75.5%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?

Yes 25% 15.97 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Yes 21.4% 200 shares