Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $369.81
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $3.98K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$278.44
Polymarket Trader
yar0x
0x14d56d3533155ec46a98b9f006b442b8e3f44e2f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $369.81
- Realized PnL
- $493.17
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.24K
- Potential profit
- $1.24K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
Ends Sep 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $441.02
- Potential profit
- $441.02
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $543.31
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.43
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $281.04
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $75.15
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.26
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.35
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $6.25
No position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.34
Yes position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.64
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.43
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.34
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.09
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.5
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$32.02
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.17
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$93.75
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$94.56
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- -$95.32
Yes position
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$139.72
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$143.64
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$184.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 14.5% 3,100.68 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes 10% 4,083.33 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 16% 1,250 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 7.9% 632.91 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 8.2% 609.76 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes 15% 2,000 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes 24% 2,083.33 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 16% 4,131.08 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes 6% 7,793.17 shares
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?Yes 22.7% 441.02 shares
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?No 69% 151.51 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes 9% 1,111.11 shares