pinkerhorse

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $168.7
Potential profit: $168.36
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $160.96
Potential profit: $160.72
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.82
Potential payout: $149.23
Potential profit: $148.41
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $139.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100.62
Potential profit: $100.47
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.05
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $97.96
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93.75
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $69.83
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.97
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.93
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.63
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.58
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $40.3
Potential profit: $40.28
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.66
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.85
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $19.98
Potential profit: $19.81
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.84
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.96
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.93
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.01

Yes position

Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 5.1%
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $7.45

Yes position

Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $3.17

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.6

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 46.51x
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.12

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.4%
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $0.94

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.83

No position

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will Trump say "Kaitlan Collins" this week? (March 29)

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?