Ferwhere

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $633.25
Potential payout: $1.27M
Potential profit: $1.27M
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$633.25

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $10.67K
Potential payout: $474.07K
Potential profit: $463.4K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$1.4K

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $8.45K
Potential payout: $296.34K
Potential profit: $287.89K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$1.73K

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.22K
Potential profit: $229.22K
User PnL: -$5.59K

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $183K
Potential profit: $183K
User PnL: -$183

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $3.29K
Potential payout: $146.38K
Potential profit: $143.09K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $591.4

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $141.91K
Potential payout: $142.13K
Potential profit: $213.19
User PnL: $119.49K

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $10.7K
Potential payout: $118.19K
Potential profit: $107.5K
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: -$1.2K

Khamzat Chimaev position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110K
Potential profit: $110K
User PnL: -$1.1K

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $97.63K
Potential profit: $97.63K
User PnL: -$1.65K

Yes position

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $360.73
Potential payout: $80.16K
Potential profit: $79.8K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$40.08

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $3.26K
Potential payout: $76.78K
Potential profit: $73.52K
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$3.46K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $832.78
Potential payout: $61.69K
Potential profit: $60.85K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $82.85

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $371.43
Potential payout: $57.14K
Potential profit: $56.77K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$28.51

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $377.78
Potential payout: $44.44K
Potential profit: $44.07K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$22.18

Yes position

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.8K
Potential profit: $41.8K
User PnL: -$2K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.2K
Potential payout: $33.8K
Potential profit: $32.6K
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$402.49

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $386.67
Potential payout: $26.67K
Potential profit: $26.28K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$13.31

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $938.72
Potential payout: $26.08K
Potential profit: $25.14K
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: -$461.17

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $503.93
Potential payout: $24.58K
Potential profit: $24.08K
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $53.96

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $489.58
Potential payout: $20.83K
Potential profit: $20.34K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$10.4

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $177.87
Potential payout: $12.27K
Potential profit: $12.09K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$22.13

Yes position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $11.04K
Potential profit: $9.99K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$81.04

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $518.18
Potential payout: $5.45K
Potential profit: $4.94K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$81.81

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172.37K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.8K

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.66K

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2K

Joshua Van position

UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $622.41

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $421.89

Yes position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $125.28

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.3%
Multiplier: 5.78x
User PnL: -$7.97

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$29.68

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$32.33

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$41.76

Yes position

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$44.78

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$67.91

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$68.68

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$71.44

PARIVISION position

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$74.13

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$75.81

Yes position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 8%
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$93.34

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$109.53

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$134.02

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?