isthistaken

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112.32
Potential profit: $112.32
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $15.54
Potential payout: $100.29
Potential profit: $84.75
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$12.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $45.53
Potential payout: $100.07
Potential profit: $54.54
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $7.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $26.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $73.5
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $55.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $44.5
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $11.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $24.5
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $75.49
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$11.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $76.71
Potential payout: $91.32
Potential profit: $14.61
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $51.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $91
Potential profit: $90.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$26.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $13.33
Potential payout: $91
Potential profit: $77.67
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $23.94
Potential payout: $90.33
Potential profit: $66.39
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $21.9
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $38.1
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$3.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $47.7
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $40.5
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $9.3
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $50.7
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $20.1
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $39.9
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $5.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $18.3
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $41.7
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $8.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $22.49
Potential payout: $58.41
Potential profit: $35.92
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.98
Potential profit: $56.98
User PnL: -$17.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$21.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.79
Potential profit: $49.79
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $16.31
Potential payout: $43.49
Potential profit: $27.18
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $6.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $495

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $271.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.56

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.63

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET