Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.2%
- Current value
- $116.11
- Potential payout
- $189.88
- Potential profit
- $73.77
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$5.79
Polymarket Trader
ir27kowalski
0x15d18a9db9f633b1ae6894d65ea1ed495f709005
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $237.68
- Realized PnL
- $240.76
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $71.43
- Potential payout
- $83.06
- Potential profit
- $11.63
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $31.43
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $6.2
- Potential payout
- $65.22
- Potential profit
- $59.02
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$23.8
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $49.49
- Potential profit
- $49.19
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.7
No position
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $20.61
- Potential payout
- $40.82
- Potential profit
- $20.2
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $19.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $20.2
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $2.26
- Potential payout
- $11.7
- Potential profit
- $9.43
- Multiplier
- 5.17x
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $0.97
- Potential payout
- $1.92
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.33
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.14
No position
Ukraine election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.43
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.28
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.23
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.15
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 9?
Ends Jul 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.63
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Patriots position
Patriots vs. Broncos
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.99
Yes position
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.57
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.18
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?
Ends Sep 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.68
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.82
Yes position
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.73
Yes position
Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time?
Ends Jul 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.32
Yes position
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
No position
Will Elon register the America Party in July?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.24
No position
Will anyone say "Russia" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?
Ends Jul 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
US x Russia military clash by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
Yes position
Will PSG vs. Real Madrid end in a draw after regulation time?
Ends Jul 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.21
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.78
Tigers position
Rays vs. Tigers
Ends Jul 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 64.2% 189.88 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 48.2% 83.06 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 50% 94.23 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17.1% 11.7 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 52% 96.15 shares
- Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No 50% 40 shares
- Trump out as President before GTA VI?No 49% 40.82 shares
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 42% 38.46 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 99.9% 53.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 75% 53.33 shares
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 75% 40 shares
- Patriots vs. BroncosPatriots 71% 30.99 shares