Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $234.46
- Potential payout
- $3.13K
- Potential profit
- $2.89K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$266.13
Polymarket Trader
0x15e92E290DC813D7Fd57b82F4f0F8bF6aA8Ec0D5-1768330321650
0x15e92e290dc813d7fd57b82f4f0f8bf6aa8ec0d5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $234.46
- Realized PnL
- $669.27
- Win rate
- 42.9%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $416.67
- User PnL
- -$25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $533.27
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $488.24
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.76
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$175
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes 48.4% 1,033.27 shares
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes 16% 3,126.09 shares
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 67% 447.76 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes 17% 588.24 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?Yes 43% 348.97 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Yes 9% 1,666.67 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Yes 9% 277.78 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes 6% 416.67 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Yes 24% 312.5 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Yes 63% 158.65 shares