0x1668d4b52386c4a3F472F6B045dd615cdE9843D5-1754989652496

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $152.98
Potential payout: $599.94
Potential profit: $446.95
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$16.09

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $334.01
Potential payout: $400.01
Potential profit: $66
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $101.76
Potential payout: $370.02
Potential profit: $268.26
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$57.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $296.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $31
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $169
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $95.91
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $91.5
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 56.3%
Current value: $56.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $43.75
Multiplier: 1.78x
User PnL: -$5.75

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $88.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $11.5
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $99.92
Potential profit: $94.27
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $77
Potential profit: $77
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.65
Potential payout: $69.97
Potential profit: $63.32
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 11?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September 17?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.73
Potential profit: $58.73
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 15?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.39
Potential profit: $51.39
User PnL: -$42.1

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $42.75
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.98
Potential profit: $49.98
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 84.2%
Current value: $25.25
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$27.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on September 16?

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.75
Potential profit: $26.75
User PnL: -$3.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $48.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 17?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.65

Up position

Solana Up or Down on September 13?

Ends Sep 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 15?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.9

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12?

Ends Sep 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 15?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 16?

Ends Sep 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.97

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $10.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-27?

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on September 7?

Ends Sep 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.87

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?