Polymarket Trader

resilience26

0x16da1dfba37b7b8f3b313924e327131b84b805c0

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $6.01K
Realized PnL: $1.63K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $67.02
Potential payout: $19.15K
Potential profit: $19.08K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$47.87

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $801.9
Potential payout: $14.85K
Potential profit: $14.05K
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$2.57

Yes position

Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $7.28
Potential payout: $14.57K
Potential profit: $14.56K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$94.68

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $139.33
Potential payout: $10.32K
Potential profit: $10.18K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$22.96

Yes position

Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $17.17
Potential payout: $6.87K
Potential profit: $6.85K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $227.76
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.33K
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: $116.65

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $74.21
Potential payout: $4.79K
Potential profit: $4.71K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $4.81

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MA-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $153.45
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.54K
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $26.53

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $477.86
Potential payout: $3.08K
Potential profit: $2.61K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $24.86

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MN-05 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $151.35
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.85K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $32.9

No position

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $2.68K
Potential payout: $2.85K
Potential profit: $163.72
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.41

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the GA-05 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $121.93
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.5K
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $26.43

No position

Will the Republican Party win the IN-06 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $128.98
Potential payout: $2.35K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$11.72

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $85.59
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $14.53

Yes position

Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $65.2
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.56K
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$16.3

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $242.54
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $29.76

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $60.83
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $62.05
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $5.69

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $60.75
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.29K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$6.75

No position

Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $145.77
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $933.98
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$16.2

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $55.46
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $990.96
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: $31.62

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $56.14
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $973.87
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-03 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $55
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $945
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $934.99
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: $213.56

Over position

Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.59

Yes position

Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.33

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $116.64

Under position

Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.45

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $70.32

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $64.07

Yes position

Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $61.6

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 7.9%
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: $60.4

Yes position

Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.4%
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: $60.33

Yes position

Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.7%
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $57.61

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $52.95

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $51.66

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $48.87

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $48.49

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 41%
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $46.24

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.76

Under position

Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.19

Yes position

World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $34.45

Yes position

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $33.37

Under position

France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.99

Under position

Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.06

Yes position

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $26.78

Under position

England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.76

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Yes 19% 110 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5

Under 90% 33 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5

Under 84% 30 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5

Under 76% 54.99 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5

Under 76% 111 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5

Under 43% 6.72 shares
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 45% 87.83 shares
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 45% 100 shares
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 45% 150 shares
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 45% 89 shares
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5

Under 34% 26.8 shares
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

No 91.4% 39 shares