No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.38K
- Potential profit
- $5.38K
- User PnL
- -$42.89
Polymarket Trader
ArnoldMarq
0x16ebd535079965d9b35c21f7e09e14ee11083144
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.95
- Realized PnL
- $18.4
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $3.02
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $14.22
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.98
Y
Yes position
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $5.93
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $8.36
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $0.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.9
No position
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?No 29% 17.24 shares
- Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video?Yes 35% 14.29 shares
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?No 0.3% 5,333.33 shares
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?No 16% 5 shares
- Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?No 47% 37.2 shares
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?No 66.6% 39.16 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 51% 28.84 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 52% 28.85 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?No 95% 28.51 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?No 59.6% 28.51 shares
- Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?No 57% 31.25 shares
- Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?No 44.9% 37.2 shares