Yes position
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $410.88
- Potential profit
- $410.88
- User PnL
- -$50.85
Polymarket Trader
megabase
0x16ef1f5b4e6f3809ee68d74109581804ab32534f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $302.65
- Realized PnL
- $2.97K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $190.22
- Potential payout
- $384.29
- Potential profit
- $194.07
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $123.29
Yes position
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $269.6
- Potential profit
- $269.6
- User PnL
- -$60.66
Yes position
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.4%
- Current value
- $104.42
- Potential payout
- $134.91
- Potential profit
- $30.49
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $60.91
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.11
- Potential profit
- $21.11
- User PnL
- -$3.17
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $8.01
- Potential payout
- $10.01
- Potential profit
- $2
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $3.96
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $495.36
Yes position
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.03
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.99
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $137.53
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.21
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.43
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.2
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.71
Yes position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.97
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.74
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.24
No position
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.6
Yes position
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.88
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.4
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.59
Yes position
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.78
No position
Will DeepSeek run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
GPT ads by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.69
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.58
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $3.81
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Yes 3.6% 9.98 shares
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 5% 1,246.53 shares
- Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?Yes 98.2% 47.53 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 26.7% 510.99 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 75% 30 shares
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 6% 2,774.43 shares
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?No 30% 741.89 shares
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?No 43.9% 146.01 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes 96% 1,015.68 shares
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 89.6% 252 shares
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes 8% 330.37 shares
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?No 16% 17.23 shares