prophiteer

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.99
Potential payout: $283.89
Potential profit: $281.9
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $124.69
Potential profit: $123.38
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113.58
Potential profit: $113.58
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $3.79
Potential payout: $84.29
Potential profit: $80.49
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $83.97
Potential profit: $81.84
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$22.87

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $65.07
Potential profit: $60.77
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: $2.29

Yes position

Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.05
Potential profit: $56.05
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $36.73
Potential profit: $34.8
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.3
Potential profit: $27.3
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $4.89
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $17.84
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $1.91
Potential payout: $18.17
Potential profit: $16.26
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$2.09

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $9.74
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 19.2%
Current value: $3.29
Potential payout: $17.11
Potential profit: $13.83
Multiplier: 5.21x
User PnL: $2.29

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $15.71
Potential profit: $15.01
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.36
Potential profit: $14.36
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $13.36
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.01
Potential profit: $11.01
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $10.75
Potential profit: $10.1
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $8.09
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.25
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.09
Potential profit: $5.09
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.19

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $9.42

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.53

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.27

No position

Grok 4.20 released by January 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.39

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.68

No position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $1.14

No position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$1.69

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?