Polymarket Trader

0x17467385c3D5328ae46B01DD8fD8Ae2973DD515f-1768924580125

0x17467385c3d5328ae46b01dd8fd8ae2973dd515f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $136.51
Realized PnL: $1.33K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$73

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $394.34
Potential profit: $394.34
User PnL: -$39.99

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $6.42
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $293.58
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $43.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $156.1
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: -$11.1

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.28
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $195.72
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$5.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $185
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $23.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $126.75
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$27.75

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $131.58
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $120
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $18.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $81.5
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$28.75

Yes position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.7
Potential profit: $99.7
User PnL: -$37.89

Yes position

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.4%
Current value: $14.01
Potential payout: $49.25
Potential profit: $35.24
Multiplier: 3.52x
User PnL: $1.83

No position

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $10.91
Potential payout: $11.92
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.56

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.18

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.08

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.8

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.08

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.03

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.16

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $56.21

Yes position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.48

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.38

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

No position

Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.14

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.4

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.04

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.5

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.63

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.15

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.14

No position

Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.87

Yes position

Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.74

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.8

Yes position

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.15

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 96.2% 70 shares
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score

Yes 53% 37.74 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Yes 18.5% 100 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Yes 14.1% 55.55 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Yes 38% 131.58 shares
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?

Yes 64% 109.38 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 200 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Yes 57% 100 shares
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?

No 93% 50 shares
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Yes 44.6% 1.03 shares
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?

Yes 75% 40 shares
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Yes 25.7% 19.99 shares