Polymarket Trader

PolyPlayerMADMAN

0x174b27fef5e1c06ed52c1ddff29720b23cb65a55

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.68K
Realized PnL: $11.86K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.6K
Potential payout: $19.29K
Potential profit: $16.69K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$748.46

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.64K
Potential profit: $10.64K
User PnL: -$5.05K

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.19K
Potential profit: $7.19K
User PnL: -$585.93

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.45K
Potential profit: $5.45K
User PnL: -$195.11

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.42K
Potential profit: $4.42K
User PnL: -$421

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.96K
Potential profit: $3.96K
User PnL: -$397.99

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $457.44
Potential payout: $3.39K
Potential profit: $2.93K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$200.51

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.59K
Potential profit: $2.59K
User PnL: -$750.5

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.51K
Potential profit: $2.51K
User PnL: -$273

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.29K
Potential profit: $2.29K
User PnL: -$1.44K

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $452.08
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$287.91

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $1.57K
User PnL: -$598.27

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.24K
User PnL: -$132

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $50.05
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: $2.05

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$22.23

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $42.93
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$2.07

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $869.85
Potential profit: $869.85
User PnL: -$117.5

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $12.06
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $576.18
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $191.18
Potential profit: $191.18
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $164.98
Potential profit: $164.98
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $4.89
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $106.22
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $37.76
Potential payout: $103.45
Potential profit: $65.69
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $7.76

No position

Starmer out by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $16.68
Potential payout: $101.11
Potential profit: $84.43
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$10.62

No position

Will Iran strike UAE again in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.65
Potential profit: $23.65
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.56K

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $861

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $727.46

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $481.13

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.4

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $256.06

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $174.4

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $146.16

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $145.32

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.84

No position

Iran leadership change by March 13?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.66

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $71.53

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 11PM ET

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.06

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.45

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.78

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 10PM ET

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.24

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.67

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.6

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.68

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 18% 111.11 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 17% 105.88 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 17% 100 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 10% 370.23 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Yes 4.5% 333.33 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes 14% 357.14 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 14% 357.14 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes 14% 242.86 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Yes 4.5% 333.33 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 14% 1,071.43 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 14% 142.86 shares
Starmer out by June 23, 2026?

No 27% 101.11 shares