SrFrancisco

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $457
Potential profit: $457
User PnL: -$4.57

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $435.41
Potential profit: $435.41
User PnL: -$200

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $403.52
Potential payout: $421.43
Potential profit: $17.91
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $49.52

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $415.93
Potential profit: $415.93
User PnL: -$217.01

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $313.96
Potential payout: $382.88
Potential profit: $68.92
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$11.31

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.05
Potential profit: $298.05
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

Starmer out before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $294.12
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $264.82
Potential profit: $264.82
User PnL: -$11

Edmen Shahbazyan position

UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.77
Potential profit: $255.77
User PnL: -$99.75

Yes position

Will Amazon dip to $192 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $227.27
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $22.9
Potential payout: $169.62
Potential profit: $146.72
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$75.48

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $116.74
Potential profit: $116.74
User PnL: -$100

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112.9
Potential profit: $112.9
User PnL: -$70

No position

Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $90.39
Potential payout: $103.9
Potential profit: $13.51
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $17.83
Potential payout: $86.96
Potential profit: $69.13
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.17

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.32
Potential profit: $76.32
User PnL: -$65.97

Yes position

Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.61
Potential profit: $60.61
User PnL: -$20

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $52.84
Potential payout: $55.27
Potential profit: $2.43
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $42.28
Potential payout: $48.87
Potential profit: $6.6
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.47

Yes position

Yoon arrested by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $489.6

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $425.54

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.49

Yes position

Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.85

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.19

Yes position

Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.1

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.07

Perry position

MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.55

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.14

Édgar Cháirez position

UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13.6%
Multiplier: 7.38x
User PnL: $20.98

Yes position

U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.85

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.65

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.58

Yes position

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.01

Ngannou position

MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.94

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $14.63

Yes position

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.73

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.91

Jeisla Chaves position

UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)