Raketa09

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $14.53
Potential payout: $132.65
Potential profit: $118.12
Multiplier: 9.13x
User PnL: $6.33

No position

Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $106.17
Potential payout: $131.88
Potential profit: $25.72
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will Passion UA win IEM Atlanta 2026?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $21.76
Potential payout: $106.12
Potential profit: $84.37
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $1.59

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $81.9
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $8.1
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $7.2
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $82.8
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $54.27
Potential payout: $84.8
Potential profit: $30.53
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$1.54

No position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $75.45
Potential payout: $78.02
Potential profit: $2.57
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.83

Yes position

Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $6.88
Potential payout: $76.48
Potential profit: $69.6
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$3.49

No position

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $31.21
Potential payout: $65.71
Potential profit: $34.5
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$5.04

No position

Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.01
Potential profit: $65.01
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $52.7
Potential payout: $62
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $14.8
Potential payout: $61.67
Potential profit: $46.87
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $41.55
Potential payout: $61.1
Potential profit: $19.55
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $4.79

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $54.3
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Implied probability: 26.4%
Current value: $15.81
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $44.19
Multiplier: 3.80x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $47.69
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $13.83
Potential payout: $58.87
Potential profit: $45.04
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Will Erik Murray be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $53.02
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: -$2.36

No position

Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $42.35
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $12.65
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $5.36
Potential payout: $53.64
Potential profit: $48.28
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$1.57

Yes position

Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $9.02
Potential payout: $46.28
Potential profit: $37.26
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$1.56

No position

Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $9.45
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $35.55
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$2.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.2

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: $12.8

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.57

Yes position

Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $9.12

Yes position

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $8.43

No position

Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.73

No position

Will Hylo launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $5.9

No position

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.7%
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: $5.85

Yes position

Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?

Implied probability: 22%
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $5.59

No position

Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 31%
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $5.08

No position

Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.17x
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $4.84

Yes position

o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

No position

Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 78%
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $4.1

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 16.3%
Multiplier: 6.13x
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 45.5%
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 13.1%
Multiplier: 7.66x
User PnL: $3.38

Yes position

Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.33

Yes position

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?