Polymarket Trader

Spirit-LT

@Spirit_LT

0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $403.82
Realized PnL: $17.67K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $403K
Potential profit: $403K
User PnL: -$495.29

No position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90K
Potential profit: $90K
User PnL: -$99.9

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67K
Potential profit: $67K
User PnL: -$99.96

No position

Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $30K
User PnL: -$79.98

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.3K
Potential profit: $27.3K
User PnL: -$46.64

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24K
Potential profit: $24K
User PnL: -$77.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.88K
Potential profit: $20.88K
User PnL: -$34.41

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $85.58
Potential payout: $15.56K
Potential profit: $15.48K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$154.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.94K
Potential profit: $12.94K
User PnL: -$16.42

No position

Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.28K
Potential profit: $12.28K
User PnL: -$71.42

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $24.43
Potential payout: $12.22K
Potential profit: $12.19K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$118.47

No position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.14K
Potential profit: $11.14K
User PnL: -$66.55

Yes position

Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $11K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $10.99K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$11.46

No position

Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.22K
Potential profit: $10.22K
User PnL: -$188.03

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.5K
Potential profit: $9.5K
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.5K
Potential profit: $9.5K
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $288.3
Potential payout: $8.87K
Potential profit: $8.58K
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$163.66

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.1K
Potential profit: $8.1K
User PnL: -$252.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.14K
Potential profit: $6.14K
User PnL: -$7.41

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.1K
Potential profit: $6.1K
User PnL: -$16.09

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$48.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.79K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $786.99

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 7%
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: $642.26

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $607.13

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $486.07

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $451.11

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $444.99

Yes position

Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 30?

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $320.84

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304

Yes position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.43

No position

Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.68

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.35

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.31

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $224.31

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $200.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.88

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $177.15

Yes position

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $167.47

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.83

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 5.6% 18.44 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 20.3% 100.34 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 11% 443.16 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Yes 0.1% 7,404.7 shares
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 1.5% 850.7 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 17.9% 100.35 shares
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 22% 176.86 shares
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 23.7% 106.46 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Yes 81% 446.52 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Yes 1.4% 915.07 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 10.5% 8.58 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 100 shares