Polymarket Trader

0x186d...4ff0

0x186d3f6c66de6bd0f6a20eef4645262a68694ff0

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $108.87
Realized PnL: -$13.41
Win rate: 40%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 5
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $23
Potential profit: $20.7
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.09

Yes position

Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $20.35
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.94

No position

Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $15.22
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $1.79
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $6.72

No position

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $10.8
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $5.2
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.04

No position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $9.84
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $6.16
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $11.7
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.15

No position

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $10.74
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $11.21
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $0.79
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $8.08
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $2.92
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.95
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $6.2
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.7%
Current value: $6.78
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.67
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $1.77
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.23
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$1.11

No position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $4.48
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.53
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.9%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.36
Multiplier: 3.04x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $4.88
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.49
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $7.77

Yes position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.2%
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$1.36

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$7.83

Yes position

Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$12.53

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

No 93.5% 5 shares
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

No 95.2% 5 shares
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 19% 8 shares
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

No 83% 7 shares
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 17% 11 shares
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

No 79% 5 shares
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

No 81% 12 shares
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Yes 19% 10 shares
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Yes 79.6% 8 shares
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

No 89.2% 7 shares
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

No 79% 6 shares
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes 21% 12 shares