Polymarket Trader

manolete

0x187e4839186af0de3d61d5df43a2bbdc18074987

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $19.65
Realized PnL: $25.85
Win rate: 56.5%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 23
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $106.61
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $89.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.96

No position

Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$6

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$5.6

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $36.15
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $4.18
Potential payout: $38
Potential profit: $33.82
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$6.08

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.7
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$6.1

No position

Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $6.32
Potential payout: $6.33
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

Ends Jul 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.9

Yes position

Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.6

No position

Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday?

Ends Jul 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.8

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.63

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?

Ends Jul 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?

Ends Jul 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.43

No position

US forces in Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89

No position

Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Will India join the Board of Peace?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$14.13

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$18.37

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.6% 89.29 shares
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 15% 40 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.8% 111.11 shares
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?

No 14% 40 shares
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?

No 79% 6.33 shares
Netanyahu out by March 31?

Yes 2.7% 37.04 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.5% 181.82 shares
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Yes 16% 31.25 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

No 6.4% 31.25 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

No 4.6% 21.74 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

No 84.1% 11.89 shares
Will India join the Board of Peace?

No 88% 11.36 shares