Yes position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $66.88
- Potential payout
- $304
- Potential profit
- $237.12
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$77.45
Polymarket Trader
piplup
0x18f675343b4e3374232997fa5a525950590fe418
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $468.7
- Realized PnL
- $183.33
- Win rate
- 76.5%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $173.85
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $16.15
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $21.85
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $17.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $102.6
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$45.67
SpaceX position
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $87.02
- Potential payout
- $88.89
- Potential profit
- $1.87
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.02
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $85.93
- Potential payout
- $86.58
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- User PnL
- $5.93
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $22.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $27.25
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
Yes position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.6%
- Current value
- $14.87
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $15.14
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.73
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $40.9
Yes position
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.79
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $11.28
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- $6.08
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
Yes position
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.22
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12
No position
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$10.4
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.01
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$39.42
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$44.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 52.6% 120 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 54% 21 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 52% 100 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 51% 8 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 49.7% 48 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 48.6% 18 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 41% 69 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 40% 40 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 92.4% 86.58 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 52% 20 shares
- Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes 0.3% 30 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?Yes 0.1% 200 shares