Polymarket Trader

Escumish

@Alcazso

0x19243fa24e3a6097d1145680259dde028650dff3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.14
Realized PnL: $64.17
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Leylah Fernandez position

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.92
Potential profit: $167.92
User PnL: -$45.54

Natus Vincere position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.52
Potential profit: $153.52
User PnL: -$30.82

No position

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 85 and 90?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $118.2
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $44.35
Potential profit: $43.04
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$4.46

Natus Vincere position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.08
Potential profit: $30.08
User PnL: -$7.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.69
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.97

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.2
Potential profit: $17.2
User PnL: -$12.04

Yes position

Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-04?

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.33
Potential profit: $13.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.13
Potential profit: $8.13
User PnL: -$1.95

Yes position

Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.77
Potential profit: $7.77
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 15?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.63
Potential profit: $7.63
User PnL: -$3.66

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $7.25
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.55
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $3.03
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $3.03
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $3.03
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-12?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $1.79
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72
Potential profit: $1.72
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $18.44

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-12?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-06?

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.88

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

Yes position

Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.26

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06?

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 8?

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 1?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 2?

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-03?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.66

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?

No 26% 76 shares
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?

No 27% 44 shares
Will Ed Miliband be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?

Yes 6% 20 shares
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

No 88% 15 shares
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

No 88.1% 5 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

No 4% 20 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

No 8% 20 shares
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 2026?

Yes 91.8% 3.69 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

No 75.1% 40 shares
Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch?

No 95.2% 4 shares
Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch?

No 95.3% 16 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes 93% 19 shares