il1

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $20.97K
Potential payout: $21K
Potential profit: $31.5
User PnL: $3.46K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $9.05K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $950
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $793.75

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $6.06K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $945
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $452.54

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $5.99K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $9
User PnL: $643.47

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $3.7K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $300.33
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $312.73

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.99K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $13.5
User PnL: $200.36

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $2K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $3
User PnL: $183.48

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $1.89K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $115
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $16.72

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.91K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $50

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $9
User PnL: $89.76

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $1.91K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $88.99
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $149.63

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $989.59
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $11.01
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $39.2

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.6%
Current value: $836.02
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $164
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $155.19

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $944.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $55.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $44.86

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $997.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: $70.5

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $945.15
Potential payout: $999.63
Potential profit: $54.48
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $37.62

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $543.02
Potential payout: $600.02
Potential profit: $57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $39.02

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $398.69
Potential payout: $501.5
Potential profit: $102.81
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $45.75

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $467.98
Potential payout: $501.32
Potential profit: $33.34
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $433.19
Potential payout: $500.8
Potential profit: $67.61
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $11.52

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $499.07
Potential payout: $500.32
Potential profit: $1.25
User PnL: $37.76

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $470.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $29.25
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.25

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $457.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $42.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $498.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $1.25
User PnL: $19.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $760

Yes position

Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $708.19

No position

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $690.01

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $564

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $561.64

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.64

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $485.68

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $447.97

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $423.9

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $414.27

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $372.27

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342.34

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.24

No position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.8

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.09

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?