maobuyi66

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $138
Potential profit: $136.48
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$20.77

Yes position

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $87
Potential profit: $86.52
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$9.96

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $16.34
Potential payout: $84
Potential profit: $67.66
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: -$39.1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $77.73
Potential payout: $78
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $15.33

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $64.35
Potential payout: $71.5
Potential profit: $7.15
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $5.03

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $20.44
Potential payout: $67
Potential profit: $46.57
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$17.18

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.78
Potential profit: $60.78
User PnL: -$27.71

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $57.9
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $19.94

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $59
Potential profit: $55.76
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$39.83

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $38.94
Potential payout: $44.5
Potential profit: $5.56
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $8.26

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $41.69
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $0.31
User PnL: $14.81

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.7
Potential profit: $41.7
User PnL: -$25.44

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $35.77
Potential payout: $40.67
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $8.86

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $7.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $32.8
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$28.22

Yes position

Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$12.9

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $35
User PnL: -$9.75

No position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $34.37
Potential payout: $34.68
Potential profit: $0.31
User PnL: $4.06

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $30.74
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$19.2

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $24.45
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $5.55
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$1.95

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $11.17
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $17.84
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$13.86

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $26.88
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $6.73

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $22
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$15.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.53

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.68

Yes position

Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.36

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.72

No position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.75

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.55

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.7

No position

Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.43

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.87

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.5

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.52

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.5

No position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.9

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.16

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.14

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.8

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.97

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.83

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.32

No position

Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.17

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.35

No position

Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?