Polymarket Trader

afspies

0x19d15c75d932120c8b54a41898fa38769ce5668d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $102.19
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $392.2
Potential profit: $392.2
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $4.42
Potential payout: $259.73
Potential profit: $255.31
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$5.58

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $146.33
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $143.01
Potential profit: $139.29
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$4.08

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $5.83
Potential payout: $120.3
Potential profit: $114.47
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $116.76
Potential profit: $116.76
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.23
Potential payout: $98.46
Potential profit: $81.23
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$12.77

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.81
Potential profit: $69.81
User PnL: -$10.36

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $4.85
Potential payout: $66.45
Potential profit: $61.6
Multiplier: 13.70x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.81
Potential payout: $63.09
Potential profit: $60.28
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$2.19

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.82
Potential profit: $56.82
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $9.44
Potential payout: $53.93
Potential profit: $44.49
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $10.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $39.75
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.55
Potential profit: $41.55
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $17.28
Potential payout: $26.79
Potential profit: $9.51
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.7%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $25.86
Potential profit: $23.11
Multiplier: 9.39x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $8.41
Potential payout: $21.84
Potential profit: $13.43
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$4.59

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $5.29
Potential payout: $10.27
Potential profit: $4.98
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 7.4% 66.45 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 63% 7.99 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes 58.4% 10.27 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 25% 60 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 63% 34.76 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Yes 4.5% 33.33 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 39% 38.46 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 64% 31.25 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 63% 39.84 shares
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Yes 11.6% 25.86 shares
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 7.9% 63.09 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6.4% 156.25 shares