Polymarket Trader

0x19f4...3245

0x19f45a1c0691ae40b4542ab8e0c792ce80233245

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $89.9
Realized PnL: $21.96
Win rate: 88.2%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 17
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $36.85
Potential payout: $37.02
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $3.91

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $19.08
Potential payout: $19.09
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $4.46

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $11.86
Potential profit: $11.83
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$7.04

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 80.6%
Current value: $9.14
Potential payout: $11.35
Potential profit: $2.21
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $3.91
Potential payout: $5.96
Potential profit: $2.06
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $5.44
Potential payout: $5.45
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $4.76
Potential profit: $0.46
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $3.56
Potential payout: $3.87
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $3.74
Potential payout: $3.74
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $2.85
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.02
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.13

No position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.02

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.36

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 80.9% 1.24 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 97.9% 1.71 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 97.8% 1.02 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

Yes 98% 1.02 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 99% 1.01 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 94% 1.06 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 95% 1.05 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 98% 1.02 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 84% 4.31 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 81% 1.23 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 70% 1.43 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 68% 1.47 shares