Metuzalem

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $2.81
Potential payout: $20.2
Potential profit: $17.39
Multiplier: 7.19x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $20.1
Potential profit: $19.25
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $17.42
Potential profit: $16.64
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $15.74
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.01
Potential payout: $15.48
Potential profit: $13.46
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.38
Potential profit: $15.38
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.76
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $6.58
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $8.72
Potential profit: $8.07
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.35

Yes position

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.37
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 27.9%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $7.52
Potential profit: $5.42
Multiplier: 3.58x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $7.14
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $5.26
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.9%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $2.76
Multiplier: 5.04x
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.01
Potential profit: $2.01
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

No position

Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

No position

Will Trump say "Atlantic" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Trump say "Colombia" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

No position

Will Trump say "Anniversary" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will Trump say "Day Care" or "Daycare" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Trump say "Helicopter" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Trump say "Blue Slip" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (January 11)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?