Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $373.25
- Potential payout
- $18.21K
- Potential profit
- $17.83K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$176.5
Polymarket Trader
betmandown
0x1a3d83418c5fa02a0478e4f769649fda5e12fea1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $654.94
- Realized PnL
- $308.64
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$42.02
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $164.52
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- Multiplier
- 12.20x
- User PnL
- $47.38
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$41.5
Yes position
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$17.66
Yes position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $929.97
- Potential profit
- $929.97
- User PnL
- -$67.14
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $789.24
- Potential profit
- $789.24
- User PnL
- -$58.4
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $94.83
- Potential payout
- $602.09
- Potential profit
- $507.26
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$4.65
Yes position
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $560
- Potential profit
- $560
- User PnL
- -$38.27
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $10.91
- Potential payout
- $510
- Potential profit
- $499.09
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$11.56
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $445
- Potential profit
- $445
- User PnL
- -$162.1
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1.26
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $190
- Potential profit
- $190
- User PnL
- -$10.61
Yes position
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $176.84
- Potential profit
- $176.84
- User PnL
- -$131.51
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.05
- Potential profit
- $115.05
- User PnL
- -$4.93
Yes position
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.17
- Potential profit
- $113.17
- User PnL
- -$59.27
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.99
- Potential profit
- $104.99
- User PnL
- -$16.99
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.85
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.95
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $4.6
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.4
- Multiplier
- 21.74x
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $96.75
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $90
- User PnL
- -$10.4
No position
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.56
- Potential profit
- $80.56
- User PnL
- -$13.29
Yes position
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $3.43
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $76.56
- Multiplier
- 23.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.51
Yes position
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $75.75
Yes position
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.55
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.83
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.54
No position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.62
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
Yes position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $6.47
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.04
Yes position
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.84
Yes position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 62%
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $3.38
Yes position
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72
No position
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- $1.19
No position
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.7%
- Multiplier
- 6.01x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.3% 100 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.3% 200 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.4% 71.23 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 4.1% 171.79 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.2% 200 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 4.9% 525.12 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 18% 50 shares
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?Yes 32% 10 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 3% 100 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 1.3% 51.56 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 1.3% 100 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 6.1% 100 shares