No position
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $2.98
- Potential payout
- $3.26
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Polymarket Trader
0x1a7b...c5f8
0x1a7b25a5b856dee82af5eeb8726d6358dc40c5f8
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $4.98
- Realized PnL
- $41.01
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $2.2
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.74
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.49
Down position
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No 30% 1.96 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No 51% 1.96 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?No 17% 2.8 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 8?No 46% 2.8 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?No 24% 2.47 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 58% 1.56 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?No 42% 2.48 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 61% 2.13 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 65% 3.69 shares
- Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Yes 15% 6.12 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 47% 2.7 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 37% 2.7 shares