No position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $30K
- User PnL
- -$488.37
Polymarket Trader
rsagi
0x1a7ca14482e84105f9589f9f4184c568a37cc26b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $463.43
- Realized PnL
- $1.28K
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $71.05
- Potential payout
- $490
- Potential profit
- $418.95
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$74.45
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $480
- Potential profit
- $480
- User PnL
- -$100.77
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $370
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$46
No position
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $165
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $55
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $63.8
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $175
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $22.38
- Potential payout
- $179
- Potential profit
- $156.63
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$27.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225.31
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.24
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.1
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124
Yes position
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.35
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.03
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.6
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.58
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.02
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.25
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.2
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.64
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.45
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.2
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.47
Yes position
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No 46% 220 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No 72% 200 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.4% 350 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.2% 577.6 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 1.1% 130 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 0.6% 1,000 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes 2.6% 150 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 13% 130 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes 16% 150 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 27% 160 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 12% 350 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 19% 400 shares