sddacx

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $69.49
Potential payout: $80.34
Potential profit: $10.85
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $21.16

No position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $52.26
Potential payout: $72.08
Potential profit: $19.82
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $31.86

Yes position

Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $5.76
Potential payout: $69.81
Potential profit: $64.06
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: -$19.24

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $2.45
Potential payout: $63.75
Potential profit: $61.3
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $13.13
Potential payout: $61.09
Potential profit: $47.96
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$2.77

No position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $48.65
Potential payout: $57.91
Potential profit: $9.27
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $48.46
Potential payout: $57.35
Potential profit: $8.89
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $12.9

Yes position

Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $50.6
Potential profit: $44.78
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$10.18

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $9.27
Potential payout: $44.9
Potential profit: $35.63
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$1.73

No position

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $27.32
Potential payout: $42.7
Potential profit: $15.37
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $8.58

No position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $32.47
Potential payout: $39.59
Potential profit: $7.13
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $17.82

No position

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.3%
Current value: $9.32
Potential payout: $35.51
Potential profit: $26.19
Multiplier: 3.81x
User PnL: $4.58

Yes position

Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $31.85
Potential profit: $28.83
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$7.8

No position

Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.43
Potential profit: $30.43
User PnL: -$21

No position

Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $22.05
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $7.95
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $6.45

Yes position

Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $28.33
Potential profit: $22.53
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$1.59

Yes position

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $23.43
Potential profit: $23.42
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.63

Yes position

Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $6.57
Potential payout: $22.27
Potential profit: $15.7
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.3
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$7.9

Yes position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $19.88
Potential profit: $16.4
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$3.08

Yes position

Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $19.75
Potential profit: $15.8
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.8%
Current value: $12.7
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $15.04
Potential profit: $12.07
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 8.8%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $13.04
Multiplier: 11.43x
User PnL: -$1.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.33

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.97

No position

Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?

Implied probability: 80%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $18.81

No position

OKX IPO in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $16.79

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.7

No position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $8.6

Yes position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $5.56

No position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 68.6%
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $5.51

No position

Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $5.28

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.69

No position

Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $4.23

Yes position

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65

No position

Will India join the Board of Peace?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29

Yes position

Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $3.05

Yes position

Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $2.79

No position

Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $2.51

Yes position

Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 57%
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $2.34

Yes position

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?