Outsmarter

Implied probability: 86.6%
Current value: $8.83K
Potential payout: $10.19K
Potential profit: $1.37K
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $2.43K

No position

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $10.01K
Potential payout: $10.03K
Potential profit: $15.04
User PnL: $10.59

No position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $6.49K
Potential payout: $7.26K
Potential profit: $761.96
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$77.81

Yes position

Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $4.19K
Potential payout: $5.81K
Potential profit: $1.63K
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $548.94

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.3%
Current value: $1.04K
Potential payout: $4.31K
Potential profit: $3.26K
Multiplier: 4.12x
User PnL: $4.64

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 76.8%
Current value: $3.08K
Potential payout: $4.01K
Potential profit: $932.87
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $204.78

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 71.3%
Current value: $2.22K
Potential payout: $3.11K
Potential profit: $895.01
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$175.7

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 67.8%
Current value: $2.11K
Potential payout: $3.11K
Potential profit: $999.96
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$114.48

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $2.51K
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $36.96
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $62.65

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.01K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $487.8
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $13.76

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $2.43K
Potential payout: $2.45K
Potential profit: $25.74
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $25.83

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $2K
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $396.16
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$25.19

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $2.26K
Potential payout: $2.34K
Potential profit: $84.38
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $659.54

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $2.13K
Potential profit: $949.07
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$107.8

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $2.01K
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $13.18
User PnL: $24.12

No position

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.56K
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $22.2
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $76.75

No position

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $19.04
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.12

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.9%
Current value: $1.32K
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $116.12
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $17.51

No position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $243.73
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$56.27

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $293.4
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $936.78
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: -$6.6

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $737.69
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $339.23
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $37.69

No position

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $7.12
User PnL: $10.28

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $775
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $225
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $536.07
Potential payout: $983.61
Potential profit: $447.54
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$63.93

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.23K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $431.96

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $207.5

Yes position

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.25

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.61

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.82

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.01

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.42

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $71.38

No position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.32

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $48.42

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $48.28

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 96.7%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $47.53

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $46.09

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.41

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.05

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.45

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.4

Yes position

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.78

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $14.58

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?