No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $481.88
- Potential payout
- $520.95
- Potential profit
- $39.07
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $28.65
Polymarket Trader
user201
0x1c51f7d0ddd954405016ef1dd35ef3bfe5407905
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.89K
- Realized PnL
- $220.13
- Win rate
- 85%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $482.49
- Potential payout
- $506.02
- Potential profit
- $23.53
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $11.89
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $397.92
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $18.75
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$2.08
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $305.14
- Potential payout
- $412.35
- Potential profit
- $107.21
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$28.86
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $330.49
- Potential payout
- $355.36
- Potential profit
- $24.88
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$9.51
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $316.11
- Potential payout
- $329.8
- Potential profit
- $13.69
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $6.1
No position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $315.75
- Potential payout
- $327.71
- Potential profit
- $11.96
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $43.75
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 85.6%
- Current value
- $258.55
- Potential payout
- $302.22
- Potential profit
- $43.67
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$13.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $442.89
No position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $199.14
No position
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.44
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.3
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.67
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.28
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.56
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.49
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.67
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.9
No position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.12
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.54
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.16
No position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $10.55
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Will Grok be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Yes position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$271.38
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$272
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$420
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?No 95.7% 355.36 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 96% 416.67 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 67.8% 502.28 shares
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?No 81% 412.35 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 65.7% 502.28 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 82% 402.44 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 93% 506.02 shares
- Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?No 97% 485.71 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No 94% 329.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 91% 329.67 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?No 95% 609.72 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 90% 666.67 shares