Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $470.76
- Potential payout
- $188.3K
- Potential profit
- $187.83K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$244.04
Polymarket Trader
0x1C5Da48636d951c8D97910147828259A4F3d63eD-1772437683177
0x1c5da48636d951c8d97910147828259a4f3d63ed
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.67K
- Realized PnL
- $1.7K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $25K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $445.2
- Potential payout
- $7.18K
- Potential profit
- $6.74K
- Multiplier
- 16.13x
- User PnL
- -$354.79
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $62.86
- Potential payout
- $3.59K
- Potential profit
- $3.53K
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$67.13
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $73.33
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.26K
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$126.66
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $395.69
- Potential payout
- $3.17K
- Potential profit
- $2.77K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $95.69
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $108
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.89K
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$72
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $688.35
- Potential profit
- $688.35
- User PnL
- -$332
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $109.38
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $515.63
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $9.38
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $476.19
- Potential profit
- $472.14
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$15.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $279.39
- Potential profit
- $279.39
- User PnL
- -$15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.82
- Potential profit
- $83.82
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.47
- Potential profit
- $53.47
- User PnL
- -$24.06
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.51
- Potential profit
- $46.51
- User PnL
- -$20
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.92
- Potential profit
- $42.92
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.47
- Potential profit
- $27.47
- User PnL
- -$12.01
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.44
- Potential profit
- $19.44
- User PnL
- -$7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.58
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $471.91
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.52
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.54
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $56.55
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $49.13
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.68
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.45
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.09
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.47
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.4
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.66
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.13
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.36
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.17
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.87
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.05
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.74
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.93
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 8.1% 128.21 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 10% 1,000 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 5.5% 1,822.39 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 16% 625 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 9.2% 2,165.5 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 5.3% 3,777.81 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.3% 29,277.76 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.3% 33,333.33 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.1% 3,197.48 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.4% 125,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes 6% 3,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 0.2% 25,000 shares