Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.18K
- Potential profit
- $5.18K
- User PnL
- -$329.04
Polymarket Trader
SteviaDaddy
0x1cac5c537efec302c6505dd92f907d0193426f43
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.24K
- Realized PnL
- $8.9K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.99K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$187.5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.65K
- Potential profit
- $3.65K
- User PnL
- -$241.04
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.11K
- User PnL
- -$231.55
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $678.99
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $720.99
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$200.99
No position
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$91.49
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $959.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $15.5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $877.16
- Potential payout
- $877.6
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $684.09
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $655.99
- Potential payout
- $776.32
- Potential profit
- $120.33
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $34.67
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $309
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $291
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $39
No position
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $498.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $1.75
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $483.46
- Potential payout
- $490.08
- Potential profit
- $6.62
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $5.15
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $297.14
- Potential payout
- $310
- Potential profit
- $12.87
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $11.94
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $189.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $10.9
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $15.9
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $173
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $86.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $19.2
- Potential payout
- $19.76
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.82
Yes position
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.64
- Potential profit
- $7.64
- User PnL
- -$4.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $994.91
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $822.76
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $756
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $368.44
No position
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.62
Yes position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.64
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $305.99
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.93
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.42
No position
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211
No position
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.22
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.8
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $60
Yes position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.21
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.52
Yes position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.73
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.59
No position
Will the US strike Syria next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.48
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?No 97.6% 490.08 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 81.4% 335.7 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 79% 440.62 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 76.3% 0.78 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 22% 877.6 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 99.5% 1,000 shares
- Iran leadership change by May 31?No 99% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 30% 827.24 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No 96% 200 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?No 87.9% 418.44 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 4% 5,000 shares
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes 55% 7.64 shares