0x1Cc365Df15d71017d19Cf8fe5A3B4659D9CCCeF6-1766940186098

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.35K
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $109.54
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $698.41

No position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 89.9%
Current value: $686
Potential payout: $763.5
Potential profit: $77.5
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$52.95

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $63
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $537
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$105

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 93.2%
Current value: $489.03
Potential payout: $524.99
Potential profit: $35.96
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $142.84

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500.01
Potential profit: $500.01
User PnL: -$372.56

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $365
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $135
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $495.24
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$28.25

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $31.5
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $468.49
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$85.5

No position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $430
Potential profit: $430
User PnL: -$119.05

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$184

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $355
Potential profit: $355
User PnL: -$129.5

No position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $274.75
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $75.25
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $12.25

Anthropic + OpenAI position

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $296.4
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $3.6
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$3.45

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $195
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$158

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $298.65
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $1.35
User PnL: $16.65

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $15.15
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $284.83
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$53.84

No position

Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $212.38
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $37.63
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $7.38

Yes position

Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$165

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.08
Potential profit: $205.08
User PnL: -$14.55

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $106
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $94
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $26

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $199.98
User PnL: -$103.99

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $193.68
Potential profit: $193.68
User PnL: -$40.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.31

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $403.15

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $327.89

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $322.66

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.66

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.09

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.56

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.23

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.67

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03

No position

Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.87

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?