No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $31.77
- Potential payout
- $33.71
- Potential profit
- $1.94
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Polymarket Trader
RadRaspberry
0x1cd0c489d29b3fb801fbb0edef8f806551f47c78
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $60.08
- Realized PnL
- -$90
- Win rate
- 10%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $9.58
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $18.2
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $4.58
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $7.18
- Potential payout
- $9.26
- Potential profit
- $2.08
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $2.18
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $6.17
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $2.17
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $5.38
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 300.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Claude 4.8 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Claude 4.8 released by June 30?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Claude 4.8 released by June 15?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$70
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.5% 33.71 shares
- Claude 4.8 released by May 31?No 18.2% 109.79 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?No 12.4% 40.27 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 85% 5.88 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No 18% 27.78 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No 60% 8.33 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No 50% 4 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?No 35% 14.29 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?Yes 54% 9.26 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?Yes 10% 10 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by May 31?Yes 5% 20 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 300.0k by May 31?Yes 4.9% 20.38 shares