No position
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51
- Potential profit
- $51
- User PnL
- -$7.14
Polymarket Trader
guanlian
0x1cdf6634d83cd1974e9e10d00aca0f034b33eba6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $35.66
- Realized PnL
- $23.82
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?
Ends Sep 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $10.71
- Potential payout
- $50.99
- Potential profit
- $40.28
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$6.12
No position
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $2.14
- Potential payout
- $25.2
- Potential profit
- $23.06
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $8.92
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $12.08
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$3.26
N
No position
Will "Disclosure Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $21
- User PnL
- -$7.56
No position
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $21
- User PnL
- -$4.83
No position
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Ends Nov 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $2.21
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $18.8
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $21
- User PnL
- -$2.94
N
No position
Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $21
- User PnL
- -$9.24
No position
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $20.98
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.08
No position
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
Ends Dec 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $1.21
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $19.79
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$4.04
No position
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $5.78
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $15.23
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.02
- Potential profit
- $15.02
- User PnL
- -$8.56
No position
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $4.68
- Potential payout
- $4.77
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
N
No position
Will a PGA Tour player win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.62
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.46
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $3.28
No position
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $1.89
No position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?No 23% 12 shares
- Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 83% and 85%?No 47.5% 21 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 9% 51 shares
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No 71% 21 shares
- Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?No 81% 20 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 18.4% 51 shares
- Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027?No 45% 21 shares
- Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?No 36% 21 shares
- Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No 62% 21 shares
- Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?No 39% 21 shares
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?No 81% 21 shares
- Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?No 75% 21 shares