Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $13.62
- Potential payout
- $143.35
- Potential profit
- $129.73
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$56.38
Polymarket Trader
PensionStrategy
0x1d14d3f80e1a1142d2fa33ec45755f519aee8864
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.56
- Realized PnL
- $271.36
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $3.23
- Potential payout
- $115.38
- Potential profit
- $112.15
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$11.77
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.2
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.2
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $94.34
- Potential profit
- $93.35
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$49.01
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.7%
- Current value
- $9.21
- Potential payout
- $49.38
- Potential profit
- $40.17
- Multiplier
- 5.36x
- User PnL
- $1.21
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $45.8
- Potential profit
- $45.09
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$19.29
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.75
- Potential profit
- $43.75
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $17.86
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $11.36
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.46
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.95
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.83
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.75
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.49
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.74
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.23
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.33
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.27
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.79
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.32
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.13
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.27
FURIA position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.67
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?No 4% 29.41 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?No 34% 29.41 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 33% 21.31 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 41% 73.17 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 91% 37.5 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 28.2% 21.31 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 80% 37.5 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 13% 115.38 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes 15% 100 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 43.7% 45.8 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 66% 90.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 57% 70.18 shares